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Last year’s mission impossible involved making predictions about the consistently inconsistent Washington Commanders over the second half of the season. The bosses were impressed enough to green-light a sequel. Here we go.

Sam Howell will be viewed as QB1 for 2024

Howell’s case grows seemingly every week. Back-to-back 300-yard passing games help, but the second-year passer with 10 career starts — including all nine this season — has impressed statistically beyond recent work. He ranks:

• Second in passing yards (2,471; Tua Tagovailoa is first at 2,609)
• Fourth in passing yards per game (274.6)
• Tied for seventh in touchdown passes (14)
• 10th in scramble yards (152)
• 14th in completion percentage (66.6)

He’s also in a four-way tie with Josh Allen, Jimmy Garoppolo and Mac Jones with a league-high nine interceptions and tied with Patrick Mahomes for sixth in overall turnovers (10). Nobody else is close to his 44 sacks, but he’s taken just four in the past two games, which counts as progress.

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Mere stats do not tell the story for any quarterback. Besides, Howell’s production comes cheaply ($960,400 salary-cap hit this season). Barring a new deal after the 2024 season, that will continue through 2025, even if his cap hit “spikes” to around $3 million via the proven performance escalator, which appears likely. Among the league’s statistical leaders at QB, only Brock Purdy comes close to that value. Washington can address various roster holes — offensive line, tight end, linebacker, defensive back — while paying a starting QB so little.

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Howell has an innate ability to move on after poor plays or games. Whether he’s unafraid to fail or oblivious to the potential downside with each throw, the 2022 fifth-round pick displays that Taylor Heinicke-esque grit but has the big arm to take advantage of opportunities.

🎙️The resilient Sam Howell had another 300-yard passing performance along with plenty of help from EB, playmakers, and, on defense — wait for it — the rookie class in Sunday's road win over the Pats. Thoughts on where the QB and this team are going. https://t.co/rCwEkr63wA

— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) November 6, 2023

He must continue developing over the final eight regular-season games. Washington has faced the league’s easiest schedule to date, per FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric. New England’s 14th-rated defense is the best Howell has battled this season.

Numerous changes and tweaks implemented after the unsightly Week 7 loss at the Giants have aided Howell, the pass protection and Washington’s playmakers. The Commanders rank seventh in total EPA over the past two weeks. That stretch coincides with starting Chris Paul and Tyler Larsen at left guard and center, providing more “girth” inside, as Ron Rivera put it. The veteran Larsen, who is 30 pounds heavier than former starter Nick Gates, also gave Howell a seasoned presence at center.

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Offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has dialed up more quick pass opportunities for the young QB after Howell took body blows in the pocket looking for targets. Changes have unlocked wideout Jahan Dotson (12 catches, 177 yards and two touchdowns in the last two weeks) after a quiet start.

It’s possible that none of those names besides Howell and Dotson are part of the 2024 plans. But if Howell continues his progress, his name will likely become the main attraction for a potential new head coach or GM, if owner Josh Harris decides to clean house. That’s the pull of passers, whether you drafted and nurtured them initially or not.

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Allen and Payne, both 2022 Pro Bowl selections, earned their lucrative second contracts ($72 million and $90 million over four years, respectively) with sacks and impact plays. Their presence bolsters the entire defense — even when their in-game statistics suggest otherwise — and keeps the line as a strength following the trades of the talented defensive ends before last week’s deadline.

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Personality and value aside, the moves also broke up the increasingly expensive defensive line — and put a spotlight on the value of the starters left behind.

The immediate impact is the addition of two 2024 Day 2 picks on Washington’s draft ledger, including a potential top 35-40 selection from the Bears. The Commanders have four young, rotational defensive ends on the roster, but none project as high-end starters. Maybe that’s not an issue if Allen and Payne maintain their Pro Bowl form. To date, statistically, they haven’t.

Allen had a combined 16.5 sacks, 47 QB hits and 127 tackles (26 for loss) over 33 games from 2021-22, his two Pro Bowl seasons. Through nine games this year: three sacks, nine QB hits, 30 tackles (six for loss).

Payne’s production exploded in the final year of his rookie deal in 2022, as he posted career highs in sacks (11.5), QB hits (20), tackles (64) and TFLs (18). In the first year of his extension, the 2018 first-round pick is well below that pace with one sack, six QB hits and 27 tackles (six for loss).

“It is one of those things that you just continue to work through it, and those numbers will come,” Rivera said, “but it’s really not about the numbers as much as it’s about the impact.”

If Young’s trade proves to be an addition by subtraction, as a team source said last week, those numbers should rise. Washington will need that havoc-causing interior tandem for any shot at the playoffs this season. That version of Allen and Payne has existed without Sweat and Young before. If they do not reach that level for the final eight regular-season games, the Commanders will prioritize investing strongly in new ends. Allen’s contract no longer includes guaranteed money after this season per Spotrac, meaning a potential renegotiation looms.

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Sunday’s game will determine Washington’s playoff fate

The Commanders’ 4-5 record tracks with the 7-9, 7-10, and 8-8-1 records in Rivera’s first three seasons. The remaining schedule suggests Washington would be fortunate to finish over .500 for the first time since 2016.

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Here’s the good news: Similar to 2020, when Washington won a down NFC East, the overall conference is meh beyond the top handful of teams. The Commanders are one game back of 5-4 Minnesota for the third and final NFC wild-card berth.

Now comes the rub. Per DVOA, after having the league’s easiest schedule through nine weeks, Washington has the 13th-toughest remaining slate. That is middle-of-the-pack overall, but only one NFC team (Seattle) faces a sterner slate. Six of the final eight games are against teams with .500 or better records, including the 49ers, Dolphins and two versus the Cowboys. Washington is 0-3 against teams with a winning record this season.

Seattle is 5-3 following a 37-3 debacle against the Ravens. With a win Sunday, Washington would have a tiebreaker over another possible wild-card candidate. It also would mean 5-5 with a home date against the reeling Giants the following week. Injuries might force New York to start the overmatched Tommy DeVito at quarterback.

That would still require a 3-3 finish for nine wins, the likely minimum wild-card entry point. Without beating Seattle, it’s hard to see how the Commanders reach nine.

The prediction? Seahawks 27, Commanders 20.

The most interesting rookie to watch will be … Quan Martin

Most eyes will track cornerback Emmanuel Forbes, especially with Washington’s first-round selection coming off his best game to date by miles. But it’s Washington’s second-round pick who has arguably the better chance to succeed initially and, therefore, impact the team’s offseason plan.

Martin clinched the 20-17 victory at New England by intercepting a deflected Mac Jones pass inside the final minute of regulation. This followed a library-quiet start to his first season, though Rivera has noted he has had some success on special teams.

first career INT for @JartaviusM_ was a big one 😤

📺 #WASvsNE: FOX pic.twitter.com/7IODQZz87U

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) November 5, 2023

After reviewing the film, Rivera said Monday that Martin was “flying around” on defense when the coaches used him at “Buffalo nickel” near the line of scrimmage. In addition to the interception, Martin caught Rivera’s eye with a blitz. That pass rush skill set is worth exploring without Sweat and Young. Rivera called Martin “a really good blitzer,” and said the staff might take a longer look at using him that way. Martin’s role could expand next season depending on contract negotiations with 2024 free agent Kamren Curl.

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Forbes’ playing time against the Patriots was his most since his Week 5 benching after struggles tackling and covering Philadelphia’s hulking A.J. Brown. Facing New England was a good confidence builder because the Patriots lacked receiving threats. That won’t be the case in Seattle, where D.K. Metcalf is a physical clone of Brown, and Tyler Lockett finds open space.

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Besides the Giants, all of Washington’s remaining opponents have standout receivers, meaning hiding Forbes won’t be possible if the robust New England showing becomes a one-off.

Quick hitting predictions

• The Commanders are 6-2-1 when Brian Robinson has 15-plus carries in his career. The power back will hit that mark against the Giants (Week 11) and the second meeting with Dallas (Week 18).
• Linebacker Jamin Davis will continue making incremental progress — he needs more than that in coverage — but not enough to have Washington pick up his fifth-year option.
• The team will maintain future depth by extending either James Smith-Williams or Casey Toohill, both 2024 free-agent defensive ends, before the season concludes.
• If ownership shakes up the headliners on the coaching staff or front office, it won’t come until after the team is eliminated from the playoffs or following Week 18.

(Photo of Jonathan Allen, left, and Daron Payne:
John McDonnell / The Washington Post via Getty Images)

“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.

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